Taliban [heart] Al Qaeda?

What is the relationship between the Taliban and Al Qaeda? If the Taliban take control, will there be an open door for Al Qaeda?

Option 1: Absolutely. Bruce Riedel (interviewed by Margaret Warner):

MARGARET WARNER: So, are you convinced that, if the U.S. had less of a presence in Afghanistan, and if the Taliban were — one, that the Taliban would be resurgent? Let’s just start with that. Do you think so?

BRUCE RIEDEL: I think the evidence is there…

MARGARET WARNER: And then what is the nature, do you think, today of the relationship, actually, between the Taliban and al-Qaida?

BRUCE RIEDEL: I think the relationship between these two continues to be one of a strong bond, particularly among the top leaders, Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden.

Bin Laden continues to swear allegiance to Mullah Omar on a periodic basis. If you look at these two, what’s remarkable about their relationship is not friction, but that, for 13 years, they have hung together. Now they think they are on the verge of victory in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They’re not going to break apart now.

Option 2: The Taliban are too smart to try the same thing twice. NY Times:

President Obama’s national security team is moving to reframe its war strategy by emphasizing the campaign against Al Qaeda in Pakistan while arguing that the Taliban in Afghanistan do not pose a direct threat to the United States, officials said Wednesday…

[A senior administration] official contrasted [Al Qaeda] with the Afghan Taliban, which the administration has begun to define as an indigenous group that aspires to reclaim territory and rule the country but does not express ambitions of attacking the United States. “When the two are aligned, it’s mainly on the tactical front,” the official said, noting that Al Qaeda has fewer than 100 fighters in Afghanistan…

Some in the Biden camp say that the Taliban can be contained with current troop levels and eventually by Afghan forces trained by the United States.

Moreover, they suggest that the Taliban have no interest in letting Al Qaeda back into Afghanistan because that was what cost them power when they were toppled by American-backed Afghan rebels in 2001.