A Path Secured

As Michael Barone points out, with a little massaging of the numbers (counting Florida, not counting Michigan, and guessing at the numbers of caucus-goers) Hillary Clinton has taken the lead in the popular vote. This gives Hillary what she has lacked for the past several months: a legitimate path to the nomination.

The facts are pretty straightforward: neither campaign can gain enough pledged delegates from primaries; the race will be settled by super delegates; both sides need to make their case. Thus far, Obama’s case was pretty simple: I won the most states, I won the most votes, I hold the most delegates. I’m the nominee. But Hillary has muddied the waters, regardless of whether or not she picks up enough delegates to substantially impact the math in that regard.

She still probably won’t win, but if Clinton can make the case that the popular vote has broken her way, her odds go from 5% to about 25%. If there’s another Jeremiah Wright in Obama’s closet, Hillary could pick off enough super delegates on the electability issue to take the nomination at a brokered convention and, in so doing, secure a victory for John McCain in the general by splitting her party.