North Carolina and Indiana

So, there are two more primaries on the Democratic side tonight. Barring a catastrophe for the Clinton campaign–losing both states would qualify, I think–the race will go on. Due to the ridiculous proportional-distribution plan that the Democrats employ, regardless of who wins neither side will pick up much in the way of delegates. The total popular vote will remain similarly unchanged. The status quo will go on: Hillary is playing for time, hoping Barack (or his closest advisers) do something monumentally stupid…something so terrible the superdelegates are forced to throw their weight behind her at the convention.

In the face of all this pointlessness, how about a prediction! Here goes:

Clinton wins Indiana by 7-9 points; Obama wins North Carolina by 5 or 6. As much ground as she made up in NC, the demographics are simply overwhelming: as master political strategist Doug Heye pointed out at NRO, the North Carolina Democratic primary electorate is 38% black. Considering Obama’s winning some 90% of the black vote, that means he starts off with 34% or so of the vote in the bag (assuming they turn out). The identity politics in play here are just too much for her to overcome.