Wouldn't it be nice …
James, I think, is both right and kind of naive when he writes this:
[W]e badly need to restore Europe and Japan to security independence, and we need to continue to advance the interests of India, and we need maybe above all not to make enemies of the Russians.
I can’t think of anything in that sentence that I disagree with, in principle. In practice, though, two of the four parts are basically unworkable. The other two present problems.
Restoring Europe to security independence is a lofty goal, but practically speaking I can’t envision it happening any time soon. The only reason Europe maintains its lofty semi-socialist entitlement programs is because the governments of Europe (with a few notable exceptions) don’t have to maintain standing militaries capable of keeping the peace in their own lands, let alone ones able to project force beyond their own borders. To raise such armies, the lesser stars of Europe would have to massively raise taxes or massively cut programs. The taxes can’t get much higher, so that means cuts in programs. And we see what happens in France any time they try to adjust the welfare state: the country shuts down.
Not antagonizing Russia is a similarly lofty goal, but Russia kind of wants to be antagonized. Putin wants to put Russia back on the map, extorting the West with threats of withholding oil and bullying the former satellites of the USSR into accepting its hegemony. Would a new Cold War be a good thing? Probably not. But it’s preferable to letting an autocratic Russia push around our putative allies in the former Eastern bloc.
A third issue arises when we talk about allowing Japan to rearm–I’m sure China would strenuously object, and antagonizing the Chinese is just as bad as antagonizing the Russians, no? I think allowing Japan to get back in the game is probably a good thing, but it’s not without risk.
And I’m all for helping India, but the quickest way to do that is through improving its economic situation, and improving its economic situation almost certainly means more pollution. Clearing that with the environmentalists (not that I give a damn what they think, but still) might pose a challenge.