December 20, 2008

Israel rehashes bad times, Iran wins

By: David Donadio

The Israelis are launching their third straight day of air strikes into Gaza, dealing themselves what will ultimately be their second self-imposed military defeat in three years. At times like these, I’m always baffled by the reflexiveness with which some of Israel’s supporters assert the justice of its actions, as if what were at stake was some sort of standing in polite company instead of life and land.

Before the 2006 war, Hezbollah was a troublesome terrorist group; after the war, it was a legitimate part of the Lebanese government, with widespread public support and open influence from Iran. Anyone think that was a victory for Israel?

As Eisenhower showed in Suez in 1956, it’s possible to sympathize with your allies without supporting them when they undertake stupid and self-destructive pursuits. It doesn’t matter whether the war in Gaza is right or wrong so much as it what it will accomplish. When the dust settles, I’ll wager that Hamas will still control Gaza, suicide bombings and rocket attacks into Israel will resume within months, Iran will buy additional time to build its first nuclear weapon, and Israel will be further isolated from all the other states that don’t want Iran to go nuclear: the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, and all the Arab regimes. I disagree with Jackson Diehl’s assessment of how big a threat a nuclear Iran would be to Israel (nowhere near as big a threat as the Soviet Union was to us), but I think his take on the war is basically sound.

When you’re a state — particularly a democratic one — you have to win the wars you wage. When you’re a terrorist group, you only have to survive. Fighting inconclusive wars against terrorist groups is kind of like treating your tuberculosis for just long enough to kill off the weakest pathogens and then quitting your meds cold turkey, leaving the worst germs behind to tear you up.

In months of rocket attacks, Hamas has killed all of 11 Israelis. That’s pretty pathetic. Meanwhile, the Indians have so far shown remarkable restraint after the Mumbai bombers killed many more with the likely complicity of the Pakistani military. The Indians seem to realize that in the short-term, they can do a lot more to make the situation worse than to make it better. (Bombing Lashkar camps would weaken the civilian government and provide the military with a much-desired pretext for reestablishing control.) And the Indians recognize that when you’re a nuclear power with a real economy and a real military, you don’t need to fritter away your power at the margins.

I don’t think the Israelis will mount a ground invasion of Gaza. I think it’s more likely that they’ll continue threatening ground action until they get an offer they like from the U.S. and others. For their own sake, I hope they don’t invade. If they think they’re friendless now…