July 21, 2008

The Dark Knight's BO

By: Sonny Bunch

As in box office. Ridiculously impressive numbers. Though Peter does in fact owe me a drink, even I undershot the eventual total; I figured something in the $125M to $130M range was reasonable. I wasn’t expecting Biggest. Weekend. Ever. type totals.

This raises two questions for me. One: Does it have legs. Will people see it multiple times (a la Titanic), and will good word of mouth prompt viewings by people outside the target demo (teenage/early adult males). I think the answer to that question is yes.

Which leads to question number two: How high can the totals go? JVL, the predictor of the biggest weekend ever himself, thinks this movie has Titanic like numbers in it. I don’t know if it has legs that strong. The first hurdle is getting to $400M, a feat accomplished by only five films during their original theatrical runs. I’d be surprised if it goes much over $420M. Helping things is the fact that the summer blockbuster season is essentially over. Two weekends from now, if you’re in the mood for an action flick are you going to go see The Mummy 3 or The Dark Knight for a third time? I know which I’d choose.

Then there’s the Oscar bump. Ledger will obviously get a nod, but I’ll go out on a limb now and suggest that the film itself will get a best picture nomination. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. That’s good for another $15-$20M. Add on to that repeat business and ridiculous critical buzz/word of mouth, and this film has a shot at crossing $500M. I don’t think it tops Titanic, but you never know.

Predictions in the comments, please. I want to get you all on the record.