2024 House and Senate Predictions

The 2024 presidential election is right around the corner! In my first piece for the AF Blog last year, I shared some way too early predictions for the House and Senate. Now that the election is less than 100 days away, it is time to revisit what I wrote nearly a year and a half ago. Here are some of the key House and Senate races that will be a deciding factor in which party controls Congress for the next two years.

Arizona Senate: Kari Lake (R) vs. Rep.  Ruben Gallego (D)

Predicted Winner: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

With Krysten Sinema opting not to seek re-election, Arizona will have a new U.S. Senator come January 2025. Arizona at one point was a stalwart Republican stronghold. Now the state is trending blue having voted for Biden in 2020 while Trump carried the state in 2016. That is mostly because a lot of Democrat voters from California are fleeing for AZ. As it stands for the Republicans, they should be writing off Arizona. Kari Lake offers nothing of substance to the ticket and will most likely drag down all the down-ballot candidates. It does help that Gallego is an incumbent; having served in the House since 2015. If Republicans nominated Mark Lamb to be their nominee, he would have probably flipped the seat red. Although the GOP will have an advantage with the border crisis, which is a key issue amongst voters in the state; it is hard for me to say that the GOP will fare well in AZ. It will take some time for Republicans to start competing again in the Grand Canyon State.

New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: Sue Altman (D) vs. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Predicted Winner: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R)

New Jersey’s 7th congressional district is the most competitive House race in the Garden State and one of the most competitive nationwide. Kean defeated embattled Congressman Tom Malinowski two years ago in a nail-biter (Disclaimer: I proudly worked on Kean’s campaign through NJGOP-Victory that year). However, this year will also not be easy for Kean. His opponent, Sue Altman, is the former Executive Director of the NJ Working Families Party, so she is as left-wing as you can get. She has hammered Kean on being part of MAGA despite the fact Kean is considerably more moderate. A major issue in this battleground district is in vitro fertilization (IVF). Altman is running on protecting IVF while Kean has introduced legislation in Congress to provide IVF tax credits. This race will be another nail-biter as it can go either way. Kean does have the advantage as an incumbent, but nothing is guaranteed. This will be a race worth watching.

New Jersey Senate: Curtis Bashaw (R) vs. Rep. Andy Kim (D)

Predicted Winner: Rep. Andy Kim (D)

New Jersey has a unique opportunity this fall: to elect a Republican to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1972 when then-Senator Clifford Case swept all 21 counties, easily defeating former Congressman Paul Krebs. However, a lot has changed in 52 years. If not for embattled Senator Bob Menendez running as an Independent, this race would not be looked at. Menendez being in the race opens things up for Republicans. Donald Trump’s 2020 Campaign Manager, Bill Stepien has been hired as a special advisor to the Bashaw campaign. Stepien also managed Chris Christie’s two successful campaigns for Governor in 2009 and 2013; so Stepien being hired by the campaign shows that the GOP is taking this race seriously.

Like Gallego and Kean, Kim will have the incumbent advantage at the ballot box. His big claim to fame during this cycle was ending “the line” which allowed party insiders a significant advantage at the primary ballot box. Curtis lacks any sort of name ID, and he flip-flopped his position on Trump. His big claim to fame is revitalizing Congress Hall, the oldest seaside resort in the United States. New Jersey may not be a swing state, but if they can send a Republican to the Senate this fall, Stepien and his campaign team will become heroes amongst Garden State and national politcos.

New York’s 17th Congressional District: Mondaire Jones (D) vs. Rep. Mike Lawler (R)

Predicted Winner: Rep. Mike Lawler (R)

Similar to New Jersey CD7, New York CD17 was a nail-biter in 2022 and will be again this year. Mike Lawler flipped this seat back to the Republicans in a stunning victory. Lawler has become very popular amongst his constituency which includes the Jewish community— a large voting bloc in this district. Mondaire Jones will be his opponent this year. The name may sound familiar to you as Jones served in Congress after being elected in 2020 and is trying to get his old seat back. Jones has called for defunding the police— an issue that does not sit well with middle-class Americans in New York. In addition, he received intense backlash when he called for killers and rapists to vote from prison. Lawler should defeat Jones but the win will not come easily.

Pennsylvania Senate: Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs Dave McCormick (R)

Predicted Winner: Sen. Bob Casey (D)

Pennsylvania will decide who wins the presidency. If Kamala Harris picked PA Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate then Pennsylvania would have been an easier grab for Democrats. However, that is not the case. Pennsylvania is still in play. After losing a tight U.S. Senate primary to Dr. Oz in 2022, Dave McCormick is trying again in hopes he will win this time. As of June 30th, both Casey and McCormick have the same fundraising numbers with Casey holding a slight advantage of $153,579 more. This race can go either way and will 100% be worth watching. Democrats are doing a major billboard blitz in the swing states with PA being one of those states. Watch for billboards around the Harrisburg, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh suburbs. This will be a close one but I have the incumbent Sen. Bob Casey winning in a race that should be decided by less than a point.