Way Too Early 2024 House and Senate Predictions
The 2024 Presidential Election will be here before you know it. A lot is on the table in what will be a consequential year for America. All of America’s values and the traditions we hold dear are on the line. We need to elect pro-liberty candidates to office to secure that America gets back on the right track. With that being said, here are some interesting House and Senate predictions for 2024.
New Jersey CD7 | Incumbent: Tom Kean Jr. Affiliation: Republican
Tom Kean Jr, former New Jersey Senate Minority Leader and son of former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean Sr, won a nail-biter in 2022. He defeated embattled Congressman Tom Malinowski, who was under an ethics investigation into his stock trades, by approximately 3 points in what many considered to be the most competitive House race in the country. I was very fortunate enough to have played a major role in electing Congressman Kean where I led Kean’s Hunterdon County field efforts. The district is a lot more conservative after redistricting. However, the close results show this race may still be rather competitive. Kean recently broke the record for the most money fundraised by a New Jersey freshman representative’s first three months on the job. Malinowski has expressed interest in running again. He has started his own Super PAC, Districts for Democracy, to keep his political visibility alive. Other potential Democratic candidates include Clinton Township Mayor Janice Kovach and Chair of the Hunterdon County Democratic Party Arlene Quinones Perez. This will be another competitive race worth watching next year.
New Jersey Senate | Incumbent: Bob Menendez | Affiliation: Democratic
Bob Menendez has expressed interest in running for a fourth term to the U.S. Senate. However, this will not be an easy go-around for Menendez. The embattled Senator has been under federal criminal investigation multiple times. In 2013, the FBI launched an investigation into Menendez after he was accused of having sexual intercourse with underage girls in the Dominican Republic. In 2015, he was under investigation again for bribery and corruption charges. Since November 2022, Menendez has once again found himself under investigation for more bribery and corruption charges. The majority of voters in America know when to vote someone out when there is too much drama (i.e. Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina). The seat was looked at as a toss-up in 2018 when Menendez enjoyed an 11-point victory over now New Jersey Republican Party Chair, Bob Hugin. As of now Shirley Maia-Cusick, an Immigration Consultant is the frontrunner for the Republicans. In my opinion, she is the only Republican running that can seriously give Menendez a run for his money. This seat is certainly in play for the GOP in 2024.
New Jersey CD9 | Incumbent: Bill Pascrell | Affiliation: Democratic
Bill Pascrell was first elected to Congress in 1996 and has been there ever since. However, the district went more conservative after redistricting. Billy Prempeh, an Air Force veteran, has been the Republican Nominee in 2020 and 2022 and will most likely be the nominee again in 2024. Billy is not the only Republican running to take out Pascrell. Vince Micco, a business owner, is challenging Prempeh for the GOP nod for Congress. The last time Micco ran against Pascrell was in 2006 when represented NJ’s 8th district. 2024 may mark the end of Pascrell’s political career as long as enough Republicans and Independents turn out and vote.
New York CD17 | Incumbent: Mike Lawler | Affiliation: Republican
Freshman Congressman Mike Lawler garnered national recognition after he defeated incumbent Congressman and then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Sean Patrick Maloney by less than 1 percentage point. He has gained a reputation as one of the most popular freshman representatives. As of March 2023, Inside Elections, views this race as a toss-up. Some of the potential Democratic candidates include Sean Patrick Maloney and Liz Whitmer Gereghty who is the sister to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. It will be another competitive race in a state that played a key role in delivering a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Despite this district being a D+3 according to Cook Political Report, Lawler will have the advantage going into 2024 whoever he faces.
Arizona Senate | Incumbent: Krysten Sinema | Affiliation: Independent (formerly Democratic since December 2022)
Arizona has been a key battleground state in 2020 and 2022; and it is shaping out to be that the Grand Canyon State will be a battleground state once again in 2024. Biden won the state in 2020 and Democrats took back the Governor’s Mansion in 2022 when Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake. Lake has shown interest in running for Arizona Senate. I am skeptical if Lake can win in the general since Arizona has been trending blue the past few years and her stances are too conservative for a statewide Republican candidate in the state. With Sinema now an Independent, Arizona Democrats will have to find another candidate to back in 2024. The current frontrunner for the Democrats is Congressman Ruben Gallego, who was first elected in 2014. Gallego has racked a considerable amount of endorsements. This race will all come down to whoever the Republicans nominate for the seat. If Republicans nominate Lake, Gallego should win easily; saying if he is the Democratic Nominee. However, if Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate like Karrin Taylor Robson, Republicans will have a chance to flip this seat red.