Patience, Young Jindal

Now obviously the powers of the Vice Presidency have increased considerably during the last two administrations, and just as obviously being veep in a McCain presidency is a special case, since the heir-apparent aspect of the office will be magnified by McCain’s age, his disinterest in vast swathes of policymaking, and the possibility that he would only serve one term. The question, though, is whether a young and promising governor like Jindal would want to be dubbed the heir-apparent to a President who would have won the White House in spite of his party’s deep unpopularity, and whose administration would be almost certainly defined as the last gasp of Reagan-era Republicanism, rather than the first step into whatever’s next for the GOP. Which is to say, even if a veep slot led to a Presidential campaign further down the road, by hitching his ambitions to a McCain Administration, Jindal might be signing up to play Walter Mondale, rather than the Bill Clinton he could hope to be instead. — Ross Douthat

I’ve been meaning for a few days to argue that Ross is absolutely right. When I hear the head honcho of the Republican Study Committee admit that Congressional conservatives are willing to capitulate to the Democratic domestic spending agenda if Dems let Republicans go for broke on the war; when I hear that Ron Paul is waiting to see just how poorly the GOP does this year before doing something serious for his next act; and when I look around at the long parade of retiring elephants and the short, short list of up and comers, I think: don’t hitch yourself to this wagon, Bobby Jindal. In four years, I expect we will have a very different Republican party. Almost any conceivable variation on that difference would produce a more attractive and profitable environment for Jindal.

I’m not as certain as Ross is that running for veep and losing would be a major blow; I’m more concerned about what would happen if he won. Conservatives have a big credibility problem. Plugging the holes with ‘big character’, like the kind Jindal already brings to the table, isn’t the way to reverse the damage. Yes, Jindal’s made his name as an incredibly smart and talented politician and policymaker, not just a star personality. But as one era of mainstream conservatism crumbles to dust comes to a close, it’s unreasonable and even dangerous to expect another one to leap fully formed from the ruins — at least in terms of political power. A caesura is inevitable, healthy, and it’s what the American people really want, at least in the abstract.