Spinal tapped

I absolutely must compliment Mr. Donadio on his reference to Spinal Tap. On a scale of ten, Spinal Tap in an eleven.

At the same time, I must disagree vigorously with Mr. Donadio’s criticism of the recent Iraq/Afghanistan statistics chart in the NY Times (below).  David asks how the chart can possibly assert that Iraq’s political progress should be scored at a 7 on a scale of 11.  Well, as the text included with the chart explains, 

The Baghdad government has achieved 7 of the 11 “Iraq index” benchmarks we have laid out, which include steps like establishing provincial election laws and enacting pension and amnesty laws 

More broadly, I’d like to defend the chart from any suggestion that it is useless or that it measures the wrong things. The metrics use to measure violence in Iraq are the three most important ones: civilian deaths, Iraqi security force deaths and Coalition troop fatalities. The amount of electricity produced in Iraq is also critical. Few people realize that, as the chart indicates, production has increased more than 50% over the past two years, finally surpassing Saddam level production by a significant margin.

The numbers for Afghanistan accurately capture some essential facts about the deteriorating situation there. More civilians are dying, more American are dying and more opium is being grown. Mr. Donadio specifically asks how the chart can assert that the Taliban’s favorability rating has declined moderately over the past two years. He’s right that a citation would’ve been useful. But the chart’s authors, led by Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, have done a superb job of collecting statistics about Iraq and Afghanistan over the past several years, many of them published in quarterly charts in the NY Times.

If you visit the Iraq and Afghanistan homepages on the Brookings website, you will find links to the Iraq and Afghanistan indexes. On pp.35-43 of the Afghanistan index, you will find extensive information on Afghan public opinion, all derived from a recurring series of polls by ABC News and its international partners.

In spite of the Taliban’s success on the battlefield, it remains thoroughly despised by the people of Afghanistan. 91% of the public has an unfavorable view of the Taliban, including 79% with a “very unfavorable” view. The bottom line is that we’re on the right side of the conflict. Now we have put a strategy in place that can provide real security.

The NY Times Chart