The 2019 Oscar’s Guide for Liberty Lovers: Green Book vs. Roma and Other Predictions

For liberty lovers out there, this might be a hard Oscars year for you. There is some to love but much to hate as the Academy continues to be obsessed with determining outcomes based a political agenda rather than artistic merit. But for all the PC nonsense that the Oscars have become, there were some genuine achievements in the motion picture arts this past year that are deserving of mention.

The Best Picture race is really down to two films: Green Book and Roma. Green Book is this year’s crowd pleaser and traditional type of winner in this category, historically speaking. It’s a version of the road trip story where two very different people find themselves travelling together and learning much about life from each other. The film is based on a true story, though there is some controversy about certain aspects of it.

The two lead actors really make this film magical. Viggo Mortensen, famed actor from The Lord of the Rings franchise, plays Tony Lip who is an Italian, working class bouncer from the famed NYC Copacabana night club. Lip is hired by Dr. Don Shirley, portrayed brilliantly by House of Cards alum Mahershala Ali – a highly educated African-American musician, to serve as his bodyguard while driving him through the deep South during the Civil Rights era in the 1960s.

The “Green Book” was a travel guide for African-Americans travelling through the deep South in Jim Crow times as it “guided” them to safe hotels, restaurants, and venues that African-Americans were allowed to patronize at.

While both men come from highly diverse backgrounds, both learn from each other throughout their trip and become better people because of their journey together. Many people have referred to the movie as a reverse Driving Miss Daisy that starred Morgan Freeman and Jessica Tandy, which won Best Picture in 1988.

But Green Book has been met with much controversy as some family members of Don Shirley claim the film has some inaccuracies. But much of the criticism that has been thrown their way comes from the cinema Social Justice Warriors who claim that the movie wasn’t “gay” enough, or portrayed Shirley’s gay or bi-sexual nature in a negative light.

There are also claims that the film was “white-washed” because it’s told primarily from the perspective of the white male lead. It’s utter and complete nonsense, but you can read a pretty good review of the film and why the controversies swirling around it don’t matter, written by none other than Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Yeah, I’m referencing the basketball legend and liberal activist for an Oscar article.

The other film that’s been building momentum throughout the precursor awards season is the beautiful and audacious film Roma. Most people have probably not seen or have even heard of this jewel of cinematic brilliance, but Gravity director, Alfonso Cuaron, has proved yet again why he is a modern Fellini or Coppola.

Roma is a semi-autobiographical depiction of Cuaron’s early life in the early 1970s in the Roma district of Mexico City. It’s stunningly shot in black and white and is a poetic ode to his nanny who served as a mother figure to him growing up.

We see the film primarily from the perspective of Cleo, played by first-time actress, Yalitza Aparicio. Cuaron has stated that he wanted an unknown, non-actress to play the role of the indigenous Latin American nanny. Her subtle performance is beautiful and heartfelt, so much so that the Academy nominated her for Best Actress even though she had never acted before!

I won’t lie though, the film is a challenging experience for the viewer. Not only was it filmed in black in white, but the whole movie is spoken in Spanish, and the first 45 minutes of it will test your patience. It is a movie that tells a story slowly and methodically of the life of Cleo and how she (and the family that she cares for) figuratively and literally save each other’s lives.

But it’s not a story that is considered “remarkable” in this day in age when larger-than-life comic-book movies dominate cinema. It is remarkable though in the sense that it really does show the beauty and intimacy of life as the arts were meant to portray art. Art is best depicted by showing us real life as it is, which at times can be monotonous and unfulfilling, but honest, thought-provoking, and even inspiring.

If one can withstand the painstakingly slow beginning, they will be thoroughly rewarded in the latter part through this unassuming and surreal journey of all the wonder and mythos of Latin America. There is no doubt that film schools will be dissecting Roma for decades.

But of course, there is controversy surrounding this film as well as Cuaron made the bold move to release the film on Netflix. Many movie studios are enraged that it’s being considered for Best Picture since it was released on a television medium and not primarily in movie theaters.

Cuaron responded after winning the Golden Globe for Best Director that if he had released a black and white film in Spanish in American movie theaters, no one would’ve seen it. There may be some truth to that.

But the good news is that if you have Netflix, you can see Roma today. And Green Book is now available through On-Demand cable services as well. Check out my predictions below and feel free to tune in Sunday night, February 24th at 8pm on ABC. Rooting for Roma, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody!

Best Picture
-Black Panther
-BlacKkKlansman
-Bohemian Rhapsody
-The Favourite
-Roma
-Green Book
-A Star Is Born
-Vice

This race is most likely between the crowd pleaser Green Book and the cinematic darling Roma. Due to the ridiculous preferential balloting of this award, it is possible that the movie with the most votes could actually lose as Academy member second choices are also taken into consideration for this specific award. While Roma will undoubtedly be the film we talk about in film schools for the next few decades, I think Green Book has the edge here as its more likely to garner not only first place votes, but most second place votes as well. This doesn’t mean that its undeserving, as this is certainly the type of movie Oscar typically selects to win Best Picture, but Roma really was the most groundbreaking and fantastical film of the year. My heart is with Roma, but my brain says Green Book. Oscar needs to get rid of this silly preferential ballot! **I should mention that if there is any surprise here, it will be Bohemian Rhapsody as it has only gained momentum throughout the awards season.

SHOULD WIN: Roma
COULD WIN: Bohemian Rhapsody
WILL WIN: Green Book

Best Director
-Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
-Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
-Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
-Adam McKay (Vice)
-Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

Traditionally, the winner of Best Picture would also win Best Director. But because of the Oscar’s preferential ballot for Best Picture, the Best Director winner tends to not be the same as the Best Picture movie winner. Only two times in the last six years has the director and Best Picture winner been from the same movie. I believe this is where they will recognize cinema genius, Alfonso Cuaron. Though he won Best Director in 2013 for directing the film Gravity, he will easily win again for this masterclass presentation of directing at the highest levels of the art. **One side note: Bradley Cooper should at least have been nominated for his directorial debut for A Star Is Born. He showed courage and imagination in taking on the beloved film that had previously been made three times.

SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuaron
SPOILER: Spike Lee
LEFT OUT: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron

Best Actor
-Christian Bale (Vice)
-Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
-Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
-Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
-Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

This is seriously one of the best and most well-rounded nominees this category has ever seen. Masterful performances by all. While many say the contest is down between Christian Bale and Rami Malek, I believe there is no contest; Rami Malek will win this deservedly. His performance of rock legend Freddie Mercury from the band Queen in Bohemian Rhapsody is a wonderful and fun tribute to the brainchild of some of the most fascinating music the world has ever listened too. It’s scary how dead-on Malek portrays the late Mercury. Seriously, watch the movie and then watch Mercury’s performance at Live Aid on YouTube and you would think that Mercury lives again in the form of Rami Malek. While Bale humanizes Hollywood’s Darth Vader persona of Dick Cheney, the movie was stupid and incredibly inaccurate. It’s a shame that Viggo Mortensen and Bradley Cooper were not considered more in the awards season derby.

SHOULD WIN: Rami Malek
SPOILER: Christian Bale
WILL WIN: Rami Malek

Best Actress
-Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
-Glenn Close (The Wife)
-Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
-Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
-Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Before December, I would’ve told you that Lady Gaga had this in the bag. I was convinced she was the modern Cher, who won Best Actress for her first role in film in Moonstruck in 1987. But then came the surprise win of Glenn Close at the Golden Globes and Gaga’s chances came to a sudden halt, and she never seemed to recover. Close has been nominated numerous times and has since become the new Meryl Streep, who, for a time, was nominated all the time but could never win. The only potential spoiler here is Olivia Colman, whose quirky Victorian performance of Queen Anne seemed to stand out in what otherwise was a niche, bougie-loved film about power and a lesbian love triangle. She is the new Queen Elizabeth in the next season of The Crown, but I believe Glenn Close’s time has come, and her graceful awards season overtures have won over Academy voters.

SHOULD WIN: Glenn Close
MIGHT WIN: Olivia Coleman
WILL WIN: Glenn Close

Best Supporting Actor
-Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
-Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
-Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
-Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
-Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Again, like Best Actress, I would’ve told you that the legendary actor (and voice!) Sam Elliott would be walking away with this one for his heartfelt and standout performance in A Star Is Born. But fate would usher in Mahershala Ali once again as the undisputed heavyweight champion of Best Supporting Actor. He won this award only a couple of years ago for his role in Best Picture winner Moonlight. I think this is a ridiculous and purposely miscategorized nomination, as he is clearly a lead actor in Green Book alongside Viggo Mortensen, and should have therefore been placed in the Best Actor category. Having said that, he deserves this award, much more than he did for Moonlight. Only spoiler here is Richard Grant who tends to be the guy Academy members are going for if they are haters of Green Book.

SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali
SPOILER: Richard E. Grant
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali

Best Supporting Actress
-Amy Adams (Vice)
-Marina de Tavira (Roma)
-Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
-Emma Stone (The Favourite)
-Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

While this would probably be a closer battle if just one of The Favourite actresses were to be nominated, but I believe Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone will cancel each other out and Regina King should nab this, even though no one has really seen her movie. She’s built up a lot of good will over the years in other supporting roles in film and on television, so she should walk away with this. Potential surprise here would be Marina de Tavira, who was phenomenal in her role in Roma, as the mother of the household. No one saw her nomination coming. That means Academy members really loved the movie and loved her enough to nominate her. If Roma love is on high within the Academy, its highly possible that she will win here as Best Picture winners usually have at least one actor/actress win in the acting categories.

SHOULD WIN: Marina de Tavira
COULD WIN: Rachel Weisz
WILL WIN: Regina King

Best Original Screenplay
–The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
–First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
–Green Book (Nick Vallelonga & Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly)
–Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
–Vice (Adam McKay)

Conventional wisdom says that The Favourite should win this as the Academy usually awards the most original and even quirky film here. Having said that, if Green Book were to win Best Picture, I don’t understand how it would not win here. Green Book was really a fun and fresh script that attacked many tough topics and even had much humor throughout it, which is a tough balance. The Favourite was a sloppy mish-mash of bougie proportions, and while I wouldn’t put it past the Academy to award it, I can’t see how so many people disliked this movie that it would still win this.

SHOULD WIN: Green Book
COULD WIN: The Favourite
WILL WIN: Green Book

Best Adapted Screenplay
–A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Will Fetters & Bradley Cooper)
–The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
–BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
–If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
–Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)

If BlacKkKlansman and Spike Lee are to win anything, it will be here. A Star Is Born was totally reimagined here for modern times, and I hold out hope it could win this. Heart is for A Star Is Born, but brain says BlacKkKlansman.

SHOULD WIN: A Star Is Born
COULD WIN: A Star Is Born
WILL WIN: BlacKkKlansman