Previewing Trump Take Two!
After Election Day, it is always interesting to take stock of events and reflect on what comes next. Each election creates a new scene which statesmen must seek to navigate, and it is the mark of great leaders when they manage to do so. In short, to successfully evaluate an administration one must first recall the tasks of government. As the British conservative statesman Edmund Burke once explained, the tasks of governing are “the public peace, the public safety, the public order, the public prosperity.”
I won’t belabor the point of the election results here. The returns have already been examined in detail and will continue to be examined ad nauseam for a very long time. Suffice it to say a few general points: First, President Trump has dealt Liberalism and Leftism its most severe defeat since 1988. The nation, thankfully, moved toward the right as a whole. Second, the mystique of 2004, the last election where Republicans had won the popular vote, is over. Throughout my young life it seemed unrealistic to suppose the Republicans could ever again experience a landslide victory or strive to win majority support, at least in the short term. It seemed that all that the Right could hope for were thin Electoral College victories. No longer, President Trump has broken that deadlock. Not only that, his support across all demographic and ethnic groups have shown that it is possible for conservatives to triumph in this day and age and that the coalition of the ascendant might not be such a sure thing for Democrats. Third, having won a majority of the vote, all swing states, an overwhelming Electoral College victory and control of Congress; no one can possibly argue this isn’t a mandate. President-elect Trump has already begun to build upon his mandate and from all reports he is assembling an impressive team to carry out his promises.
I think those are the three broad trends that can be surmised for now. We know that the second Trump administration will focus greatly on deregulation, securing the border and curbing mass illegal immigration, restoring economic growth and prosperity, and reestablishing deterrence and peace throughout the world. These are the broad outlines of how success for the administration can be measured. President-elect Trump’s policy and legislative agenda will surely bring these about. We know that because it’s worked before. The stock market has already reacted favorably, and there are signs among America’s enemies that they are willing to negotiate. All these are encouraging signs, even before President-elect Trump has even taken office!
Nonetheless, there are some questions which will have to be answered with the passage of time. For example, some commentators have mentioned that second terms are historically less successful and more difficult than first terms. Perhaps, though the analogy might be flawed since President Trump’s second term is nonconsecutive (for which there is no precedent in contemporary American history) and he begins his second term more popular than ever before, with a Republican trifecta, with a clear mandate, the opposition defeated and demoralized, as well as wiser and more experienced.
In that sense, one could argue that this looks more like a first term than a second one. The President-elect will have at least two years and a honeymoon period (something which was denied to him in his first term) to pass his legislative agenda. This time there won’t be sabotage, hopefully, from the Left’s entrenched bureaucracy and since they don’t control the House, the administration won’t have to worry about constant investigations and deadlock. Additionally, with the remaking of the electoral map and coalitions, President Trump may have an opening to build a new Republican majority. American politics historically has one party dominant over the other, and the era of 50/50 splits might be coming to an end. Therefore, whether the GOP can build a majority similar to how William McKinley or Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan did will be a very interesting question in the coming years.
As such, Trump II will have an opening to remake the political landscape in a way no President has since Ronald Reagan and, to a Left-wing and damaging degree, Barack Obama. It seems likely that President Trump will succeed in this, though time will tell since history takes unexpected twists and turns. It is also important to recall that if and when the GOP builds a new majority, it is in the nature of politics and human affairs that it will eventually break down. No political coalition or conditions last forever. The McKinley, New Deal, Nixon-Reagan and Obama coalitions all broke down. It is also important to have a sense of political humility, not all policies and ideas will be successful. Even within the GOP, as we know, there will be great differences of opinion.
Regardless, the three basic pillars of the America First agenda are likely to remain the cornerstone of Republican orthodoxy and politics for a very long time. Those are: protectionist measures and willingness to address trade imbalances; nationalism and defense of American sovereignty and borders by, for example, opposing mass illegal immigration and third, a foreign policy of deterrence and containment, as Pat Buchanan defines it, and not military interventions all over the world. This last point doesn’t mean an isolated America, since as has been reported the incoming president is very interested in America’s potential as a peacemaker. All good and necessary changes.
Lastly, there is always a risk when a party wins an overwhelming victory that it might become hubristic and overextend itself in the use of its power. Such has been the trend in American history since the Federalists with the Alien and Sedition Acts to the Biden-Harris administration. As such, it wouldn’t be surprising if Republicans lost Congress in 2026. But who knows? If there is one figure in our times who has never ceased to surprise and defy the alleged laws of politics, who has dominated the attention of the world and defined his times more than any other politician, it’s Donald John Trump. As long as Americans enjoy “prosperity at home and prestige abroad“, it is possible that the administration will be rewarded at the polls. As Henry Kissinger said “I think Trump may be one of those figures in history who appears from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretense.”
What will happen? Time will tell, but I suspect that the administration will be very successful. What twists and turns will show up along the way only God, the Lord of History, can tell. But in short, the incoming administration faces a far more dangerous world than in 2017. Let us pray to Our Blessed Lord to guide our newly elected leaders, and may He guide the President-elect to govern wisely and well. In brief, God bless America!