Early predictions for the new administration lineup

Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates stays on. I think this is where Obama keeps a Republican in the administration. Gates is a reassuring presence to both allies and adversaries, who see him as a professional, a steady hand and a straight talker. He could provide an important sense of continuity for countries that like the way they’ve fared under the Bush administration (there are a few), without stymying Obama’s new initiatives and efforts to repair damage done.

Secretary of State: I can’t see it being Strobe Talbott (remember “shock therapy” for Russia?) or Richard Holbrooke (too hawkish). Susan Rice, maybe? (Though this will inevitably invite jokes that from now on, the job will only be offered to black women named Rice. Then again, Obama’s election to succeed Bush will inevitably invite jokes that the president must have used cocaine.)

National Security Advisor: former director of the State Department policy planning staff Gregory Craig, or former deputy national security advisor Jim Steinberg. Either would be fine choices, and in view of the troubles of the past few years, I don’t think Americans will mind seeing Clintonites in this position.

Secretary of the Treasury: Tim Geithner, head of the New York Federal Reserve since November 2003. Geithner has helped negotiate the financial crisis, and would allow Obama to tap someone with experience without dipping once again into the Clinton lineup.

Attorney General: Deval Patrick, now governor of Massachusetts.

(Hat tips to various important pieces linked in today’s daily Foreign Policy brief, which you can sign up for here: here, here, here and here.