Oscar predictions!

I’m late with these because I’ve been incredibly busy. You can check out an in-depth discussion of the Oscars over at The League between Will, Freddie and I if you’d like. But right now I’m going to give you my head/heart Oscar picks for the major categories.

Best Picture

Head says: The Hurt Locker. It’s basically a toss-up between Avatar and The Hurt Locker — as recently as last week I was saying Avatar would win — but the momentum has all gone toward Kathryn Bigelow’s war picture in the last few weeks. I think it’ll pull off the David vs. Goliath upset.

Heart says: A Serious Man. I think it’s the best picture that the Coens have made since The Big Lebowski. Perfectly pitched black humor; a metaphysical sensibility that works just right; spot-on performances from every single cast member. Like I said: Their best work since The Big Lebowski, easy.

Best Director:

Head says: Kathryn Bigelow will become the first woman to win the best directing Oscar…

Heart says: …and she’ll deserve it. Just a virtuoso performance from the director of Point Break. The slowly mounting tension, the spinning cameras, the feel of dirt and grit and grime. When I talked to her last year, she said that during the set-pieces she’d have several different camera crews — entire crews, not just cameramen — working simultaneously so she could put together shots from the same chaotic setting. Just brilliant work on her end.

Best Actor:

Head says: Jeff Bridges. I thought the work was a little cliched, but the Academy loves the actor and it’s something of a lifetime achievement award.

Heart says: George Clooney. I guess. I wasn’t terribly in love with any of the performances. Jeremy Renner’s pretty good as well. I would have gone with Michael Stuhlbarg in A Serious Man if he had been nominated. A masterfully understated turn.

Best Actress:

Head says: Sandra Bullock. Again, kind of a lifetime achievement award.

Heart says: Carey Mulligan. Loved her in An Education, which was probably a little overrated. Still, she was excellent in it.

Best Supporting Actor and Actress:

Head and Heart both say: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) and Mo’Nique (Precious) both will win and deserve to.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Head says: Up in the Air seems to be the consensus favorite at this point. Fair enough.

Heart says: In the Loop had a far better script. The virtuoso cursing tirades from Peter Capaldi, playing Malcolm Tucker, the Rahm Emanuel of Great Britain, are worth the price of entry alone. This movie also has the single greatest look at the life of the peons in government who actually do the work and help design policy. Great stuff: I cannot recommend it enough.

Best Original Screenplay:

Head says: Inglourious Basterds, I think. That seems to be the way the wind is blowing.

Heart says: A Serious Man. What can I say? I loved that picture.