Taiwan and Ukraine, Parallel Lives

The United States should not go to war in defense of Taiwan unless circumstances change. At the same time, the United States is not at war in Ukraine. An interesting question that comes up from time to time regarding American policy toward Taiwan is why America should assist Ukraine but not Taiwan as if the right policy for one requires the exact policy for the other. This is mistaken. For example, the United States has not gone to war for Ukraine. It has merely, mostly ineptly during the Biden-Harris administration, followed traditional American policy in aiding victims of aggression against their aggressor. It also seeks to prevent a rival power from gaining strength in a region vital to American interests. 

For as long as we can foresee, Russia will be a continuous concern of American diplomacy simply because it is a nuclear power with the capability of physically destroying the United States. As such, it is in America’s interest to have stable relations with Russia, and, should Russia behave aggressively, it is in the American interest to check that behavior before it becomes a greater threat to the balance of power in Europe. 

American involvement in Ukraine has merely provided military and economic assistance military and economic assistance per our commitments, interests, and capabilities. Additionally, it is Ukraine itself that has assumed the responsibility of providing the manpower for its defense and has been doing the fighting (and so it must always remain). Whether this policy is for good or ill is debatable, but it is a fact. The United States has wisely refused requests to go to war or establish a “no-fly zone“ in Ukraine. 

Now, Ukraine policy is a different matter than Taiwan. The debate over Taiwan has centered on whether the United States should go to war against the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in defense of Taiwan. If the question centers around should the United States seek to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, through military and economic aid, then the response America should provide is yes, only up to America’s capabilities and interests. 

The United States should continue to develop the porcupine strategy for Taiwan and make it as difficult as humanly possible for China to conquer the island. That is the basic due diligence of deterrence. And as part of that strategy of deterrence, the United States should retain its policy of strategic ambiguity. Keep China guessing. However, America should not concern itself with reunification, as long as the issue of reunification is solved peacefully and freely. 

Nonetheless, if China pursues reunification by force, then the United States should not go to war against the PRC. The reasons for this are simple. In recent war games, the United States lost almost every scenario against China. Moreover, currently, American manufacturing capacity, defense industrial base, and the naval power needed to triumph against China are severely atrophied. Lastly, the political will of the American people has soured against internationalism, and it is doubtful that there would be broad support for war against China (even if it were desirable or wise to do so, which it isn’t). Only 46% of Americans favor defending Taiwan from Chinese invasion. A foreign policy without popular support cannot endure very long. 

The United States needs time to regain its strength and develop a definite understanding of its foreign policy goals. A war between nuclear powers is not something to be taken lightly. The United States should be willing to use all means necessary to defend itself and honor its treaty commitments, but we have no mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, and the risks at this time are too high. And so, were China to invade Taiwan the American heart, I am sure, would side with the Taiwanese. But Columbia’s sword must remain sheathed. 

As such, though the goal of American policy toward Taiwan should be to deter and avoid any sort of military conflict; if push comes to shove the United States should not go to war against China but instead provide whatever military, economic, and diplomatic support it can. Ideally, this demonstration of support and resolve occurs long before an invasion occurs, for if Taiwan is invaded, then American policy has failed.