Thinking Ukraine Through: Part 3

This will be a 4-part series where Rodney Rios breaks down the Russian war against Ukraine

In the age of Putin, the United States made the mistakes of forming a reset of relations with Russia, shelving NATO expansion under the Obama administration in exchange for cooperation with Russia, scaling back missile defense plans in Europe, “strategic arms reduction treaty required significant cuts by America, but not Russia,” allowing Russia to return to the Middle East, and, worst of all, an anemic response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. The Minsk Accords were stillborn. Putin only sought a respite to gather his strength and attack again. As an op-ed of the time explained, “President Obama has wrongly argued that providing Ukraine with the assistance and equipment it needs to defend itself would only provoke Russia. Putin needed no provocation to invade Ukraine and annex Crimea. Rather, it is the weakness of the collective U.S. and European response that provokes the very aggression we seek to avoid.” In short, Russia’s war is only Putin’s war. It is not America’s fault; it is not the West’s fault.

Regardless, back in the day, the Obama administration sought to appease Russia even then. Only during the Trump administration did the United States supply Ukraine with the means to defend itself. If that policy had been followed in time and assertively during the Obama years, it is likely that there would not be a renewed war now. Sadly, the Biden administration’s policy seems to be one of incremental support like the failed Obama policy, which feeds into frustrations for battlefield results and allows unilateral disengagement voices to gain support for ending all aid to Ukraine. As Jim Geraghty from National Review has explained, “the game plan appears to be to intermittently try to sound like Winston Churchill while sending weapons systems at a snail’s pace, months and months after the Ukrainians have said they need those weapons systems.” This is not a recipe for victory.

And yet, what would make us think that appeasing Russia again by cutting off all aid to Ukraine would lead to different results? The disengagement and abandonment of Ukraine by the United States would consequently lead to the collapse of a de facto American ally in which American credibility has been invested for years now. It could lead to a situation in which the perception by revisionist powers is that America continues to retreat and the world order is collapsing. This would slowly lead us to disaster, not only for America but for the peace of the world. As President Nixon wrote in Beyond Peace, “If Russia were to revert to authoritarianism, a strong Ukraine would be a vital deterrent to aggression. A prescription for disaster in Europe would be a weak, vulnerable Ukraine joining forces with a newly imperialist Russia.”

The only power that can keep the peace amongst the great powers is a hegemon, and only a strong America can do that. Our recent foreign policy record of unnecessary wars and appeasement has sapped the will, understandably, of a large portion of the American people to bear the burden of world leadership and keeping the peace. Additionally, our current leaders have preferred to engage in demagoguery in discussing these matters or have avoided explaining American strategy and goals, especially in Ukraine.

Stay tuned for Part IV